What’s the point of Orion Blue Book service: determining the value of used and new equipment for wholesale, private party and barter transactions. From Econ 101, the value of such products is only as good as the most recent trade and market-based transaction. So, in fragmented markets with high transaction costs (finding buyers, inventory, uncertain information, quality issues) the volume is low and the information of actual undisputed trades is unavailable unless someone pays to discover it. That’s why a stock market works so well: it has a lot of volume, it has transparency (each share of equal quality), established transaction method which has lowered transaction costs. On the other end of the spectrum are computer equipment, unique valuables (instruments and antiques) and typically cars. It is hard to ascertain the quality of the equipment, hard to find buyers in 1 place, and hard to complete the transaction with good creditworthy parties. So, Orion Blue Book solved this problem by conducting surveys and compiling this hard to find information in a neat format to help car dealers and other pawn shop owners make sure they are paying less than needed on used stuff. Instead of getting actual transactions, this “blue book” stuff was based on estimates and these 3rd party evaluations. There’s clearly a bias here, but maybe I’m generalizing (or not!) This should have been adequate until about 1998 when eBay started growing.

At this point, eBay has the largest volume of private party transactions of new and used stuff . This means, eBay’s databases (I presume oracle, but god forbid mysql) contain unbeliveable wealth of information on these transactions. Just check out this search on Epson 1280 and find me a used $41 printer. If you take into account only valid transactions, like ones where seller claims X, highest bidder pays Y and doesn’t complain about the validity of X, then X’s value is Y. Aggregating these X’s or products by category (new, refurbished, used), age or a few other attributes, and then showing a simple distribution of cleared valid transactions (high, low, mean and median) along with volume, and even % aggregate positive and negative feedbacks in the transactions you have the most real-time eBay Blue Book service available. And here’s the kicker: this should be free online for us or at least available in a nice shiny book format to be sold to old-school insurance agents and claims adjustors.

In 1 simple move (ok, maybe 3-months work for a good web developer and DBA) eBay has displaced the Orion Blue Book crap value measure with something real that shows actual market transactions and the likelihood that your epson printer is worth what you claim it is.

Am I genius or what? Meg, are you there? We need you here, I’m sure you have someone at ebay working hard on this, but include me in as a volunteer on this project (i have heavy quant modeling skills with ability to create and market something like this, just a plug!). The biggest problem: selling to the insurance people and setting a court prescedent that ebay is true market information to be used as a substitute for the national surveys because it is based on sound economics, and since ebay makes money off sellers transactions, it has no other incentive to mess with prices except to increase overall transaction volume. Making this freely available would be another validation of this model.

Comments?

Again, FedEx Ground insurance and declared value suck. Orion Blue Book sucks because working Epson 1280 can’t be found anywhere for $41 and eBay should close this gap NOW!

Some of you are probably wondering how did FedEx settle the damage they caused to my Epson 1280 photo printer. The title should give you a clue. In fact, I wanted to launch into a tirade of expletives towards FedEx Ground, all rightfully deserved of course, but I want to make this educational in case some of you are wondering: does a “declared value” insure my shippment, of so, how much is FedEx going to pay, how can I make sure the whole world knows FedEx sucks big time, who the fuck is Orion Blue Book and why should we care?

$41.00 that’s the amount on the check from FedEx regarding my claim about FedEx completely destroying a $400 printer. FedEx paid my claim 10cents on the dollar! I’m supposed to bask in their generousity of this “full and final settlement” based on the Orion Freaking Blue Book. That’s right, Orion Blue Book apparently says that my 3-year old used Epson 1280 in excellent working condition, with depreciation is worth $41. In fairness, I couldn’t be happier if this was true, for I’d gladly return the claim check to FedEx and buy a used Epson 1280 for $41, $51, $81 or even $91!!! But first, FedEx and fucking Orion Blue Book have to find me one. Orion Blue Book sucks!

Not that FedEx was so eager to satisfy a loyal customer for 10 years, FedEx actually denied my damage claim pretending I didn’t send “documentation.” After calling them and explaining what all the papers were in the envelope that the “case analyst” had in front of her, she quickly brushed me off “ok, I’ll pay the claim, bye!” Wow, that easy? I wanted to give her all assurances how they were doing the right thing, but she wouldn’t have any of it. Apparently, she had a secret weapon: Orion Blue Book — the biggest scam when it comes to electronic equipment. Oh, and get this: it’s based on National Dealer Surveys! Who buys this stuff? National Dealers and pawn-shops, most likely not ordinary people like me who actually buy and sometimess sell stuff. Just curious how many eBay-ers actually use this garbage?

Vele, where’s the lesson in this? Here it is: when shipping anything with FedEx, ignore the Declared Value field. It’s not insurance, just your own guess of what you think your stuff is worth. The only time this number is used is in the rarest of chances that Orion Blue Book says your shipment is higher value than what you put in the Declared Value and then FedEx pays you Declared Value, which is likely to happen when hell freezes over. Apparently, FedEx doesn’t give a shit about this number as they base every claim off the a) repair cost, b) replacement value, or c) orion blue book value which ever is less!!! If you want true shipping insurance avoid FedEx!!! Most likely you should use UPS as they actually call this insured value, but check with UPS on the phone. I hear the USPS is a little finicky as well. This puts FedEx as target of a class action lawsuit for misleading shippers on the intent and meaning of Declared Value. Imagine, I shipped stuff worth over $4000, and it meant nothing to them, I was misled (yeah, I should have read all pages of their terms of service, but what’s the point of declared value if you aren’t going to pay for it!?), and so are potentially millions of FedEx shoppers claiming declared value on their packages. Don’t use FedEx declared value, and avoid Fedex in the future.

Here are a few links of pissed off customers:
http://www.audioasylum.com/scripts/t.pl?f=vintage&m=66783
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/delivery/fedex_ground_insurance.html
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/delivery/fedex_damage.html
And I love this one!

So, here’s my next lesson: eBay should be in the business of Used Value books! THat’s the theme for my next blog,
For know, let me know if I should go to the trouble of filling a small claims court. All used Epson 1280’s on eBay start at around $150, because they are useful printers in working condition. All refurbished ones start at $250. New ones are around $350-$399. How do you get $41 I don’t know, but I’ll say it again: FedEx sucks and should be sued for misleading customers on shipping insurance and declared value, Orion Blue Book sucks because they are creating value to serve their direct customers: National Dealers and pawn-shops.

On my move back from Seattle, Fedex broke my Epson Stylus Photo 1280 printer. Considering that I shipped 20 packages from Philly to Seattle and back and this was the only damage, that’s not so bad. I am also very lucky to have put a declared value of $400 on this printer. The printer now is completely useless, I filed a claim and I’m hoping Fedex, of whom I’ve been a super loyal customer since 1994, will reimburse me completely.

I was bummed about missing my photo printing mainstay, but I looked at upgrading the printer for the same price or perhaps getting something similar for less. Well, imagine the shock that Epson STILL sells 1280 on their site for $299, after a $100 rebate. A 3-year old printer model, (I paid $469 in early 2001) retails brand new for $299, 63% of its value. I checked ebay and the price is a very similar for newer ones. The rebate is probably an indicator that Epson is readying an R800-like 13″ wide printer. I also looked at the bigger brother 2200, with its pigment inks, and this 2-year old still retails for $699 with a $50-off a best. I love the new R800 with the 8-ink cartride, but it’s an 8″ wide printer and while I don’t do many wide prints, the ones I do are absolutely worth it! So, I need a wide Epson printer and I’m debating getting a 1280 again or upgrading to 2200 (which isn’t a best printer for regular b&w letter printing), or waiting to see if Epson comes through with 13″ R800-like model.

The bigger question here is the lack of depreciation for a 13″ wide photo printer. I was expecting a cheaper printer to be available of similar or better quality especially in the 3 year, but alas there isn’t. While the Canon i9900 is fast, the prints aren’t as durable as those from Epson. My prints from 2001 are still in top shape and I don’t see any fades or color shifts. So, for all the innovation and price declines for the quality in the low end sub-$300 printer markets, Epson 1280 represents a premium printer that does a job well, and there is not real substitute and competition. What’s the market: prosumer photographers, studio, commercial and serious hobbyists. This market buys 1-2 printers every few years to keep up with volume and spends their money on inks. If you had no need for many B&W prints, you could keep the 1280 forever.

Which reminds me of a car: while cars depriciate value rapidly, they are still useful for their main purpose. The 1280 is still useful as a photo printer, has depreciated new better than a car, (unusual for a technology product), and remains a preimum item in its category unmatched by competitors. You wonder why other computer technologies continue to depreciate and not be as useful: applications! As long as there are new tech applications for computers that demand upgrades (digital lifestyle, storage, communication), computer depreciation will be faster and correlated with devaluation in their usefulness. The application of 1280 is simple: quality photographs in 13″ wide format with reasonable longevity to be sold commercially. This application hasn’t changed and probably won’t change. Something that will drive price pressure is competition. If Canon is serious, they’ll jack up the durability of their inks and photo prints and make their printers compete with the 1280 target market. Otherwise, don’t expect massive declines in prices for 13″ wide prosumer photo printers for time to come.

We saw Tantric last night at the Theater of Living Arts (TLA) here in Philadelphia. My wife and I have been huge Tantric fans since their first album with the hit Breakdown. We have their latest album as well and we enjoy the consistent quality of rock and the clear Alice in Chains-inspired roots and original licks. The band pulled of another quality album in After We Go and we were looking forward to their performance. In addition to Tantric, we saw a couple of smaller bands: From Sattelite and 12 Stones. Both looked promising.

If you are waiting for a big BUT in this post, you are right, and not as in human anatomy but as in this concert failed on so many levels it could be part of human anatomy, which is a shame.

Where do I begin? Oh, yes, the TLA, this venue simply SUCKS! It is not too big, how could it be right on 3rd St. and South St, standing room only, but they clearly they must be used to poor attendance and so-so bands. Why would they otherwise have such horrible acustics? I’m very picky with acustics and reminds me a bit of my days long time ago in high school when I had a rock band. The acustics and sound check was so bad, 80% of the time I had no idea what was being sung, relying only on my knowledge of the songs. It sounded to me like way too much power was piped through crappy speakers. To top this off, the main mike for the singers all 3 bands was pure shit. It cut off many times, had low volume and worked sporadically. The bands may have not noticed this, having their own back firing speakers, but I could see the puzzled looks on the audience across me. I was merely 2-3 people from the stage so I could hear some of the playing and the singing and saw the potential. It was truly a shame to distort such good music.

Which brings me to the other issue: audience and the bands. The audience was pretty descent and clearly big fans of all bands, but just not enough. The concert started about 1 hour late, but looking at the less-than half filled TLA, this must have been sobering to the bands. What gives? Tantric is a very good original band that plays solid rock with consistent quality. They even did a Alice in Chains cover which sounded great, but again, you wonder: who promotes this, is Philadelphia a miss-match for Tantric, 12 Stones, etc, or are they a dying band? All of this is a shame as Tantric hasn’t received any radio play, we heard of the 12 stones in Seattle, and the rest is a mystery. Lessons in marketing all across…

I decided to compile some of my photos into a new gallery called Various Uncategorized Photos. This is an ongoing work-in-progress and may result in changes over time. Over the past couple of years, out of the thousands of photographs that I have accumulated, dozens of them have been worthy of publishing. However, I have managed to print most of them, but due to time constraints and the eternal quest for perfection, I put off the time to create a gallery. Instead of continual tinkering, I decided to pull some of my best finished work and publish it.

Among these photographs include my fall foliage tour of the Shawangunk Mountains near New Paltz, New York in the Fall of 2002. The prints from these photos are stunning with the rich colors of the region. Include is also my lucky photograph from the sunset at Big Sur. On an 11×16 print, this photograph shows incredible detail especially from my trusty D-60.

So, go over to to my site and check it out. Comments are welcome.

We have been in Seattle for almost 2 weeks and we love it! I’m just amazed at the overall beauty of the region, the geographic variety, exposure to water, high mountains, nearly cosmopolitan feel, without too little cohesiveness. It is for many of these reasons that I have always held the Bay Area and particularly San Francisco to high esteem. It held all of the metropolitan benefits — concentration of educated people, diversity, wealth both cultural and economic, and beauty of the region. It married the best of New York City in a California setting. Over the years I have grown to like Manhattan for its multitude of benefits, but I hated the fact that you couldn’t escape when you wanted to. The geography was utterly boring and the few beach-going places were packed by the people you mostly wanted to avoid. But I won’t get into that…

Anyways, we love it here in Seattle, and we have been warned that summers are the best days here, and then the fall comes…In meantime, I’m looking forward to making the best out of this place while on my internship at Microsoft.

Microsoft is a different experience onto itself. First of all, it’s a huge organization, but that’s not the obvious part. It becomes clear to you how big it is daily but the number of interaction and meetings that you have to go through to get things done. I don’t mean this in a bad way. Things get done here and people are extremely focused and dedicated to executing. My previous experience in a large organization was almost the exact opposite. At Citigroup, the largest financial conglomerates, you merely notice the size of the company by the building and the packed elevators. But, you can go on for days and weeks without feeling that size on you because most of the work was owned by no more than a few people and by that measure had controlled entrepeneurialism embodied in fiefdoms. You can get things done without too much interaction. Which is typical of a trading culture. In fact, you can sometimes get things done without any interaction at all.

That’s another reason why I’m so far enjoying the experience. There is tremendous exposure to smart people which turns not only into execution but also into incredible learning opportunities. Much like being at Wharton, while you may not always like everyone you meet, I have yet to find someone from whom I cannot learn something smart and valuable. And that’s what I enjoy.

Anyway, you didn’t fall asleep so far…

Recently, I’ve been using the trial version of Onfolio a software for collecting research from your Internet browser. I installed it after reading about it on Robert Scobble’s blog. As an MBA student who constantly searches the web for important, critical and sometimes trivial time-killing info, this is an excellent tool. In fact it is so good, it should be mandatory for all MBA students. I’m done with the trial and I’ll be purchasing it. So, you will see some ideas on what’s the deal with Onfolio and how it can be made into an even greater product. The comments on Robert Scobble’s blog above indicate a lot of confusion among people about what Onfolio does. Yet, you get hooked on it after installing it and using it. This is a product that can be replaced by a feature, but a product that will gain a lot of traction from a first mover advantage. As I describe below, it needs to keep upgrading with tighter integration both on the desktop and online to become a key product for individuals/students. It may be a tougher sell for the enterprise.

First, it allows for easy capturing of information from IE into a folder of collections that you can organize. Why isn’t this a glorified Favorites folder you ask? Because Favorites suck and we all now it. Favorites would have been great if everyone followed the rule on the Internet of creating permanent links. This is rule went away with the internet bubble when session-id’s started popping up and ruining permanent links on websites. The other problem is that you often need a snippet of critical info on the web page that’s not cluttered with stylesheets, images, banners and other mindless stuff (ok, not all mindless, but usually it is). Best of all, Onfolio can save a copy of the web page, a snippet of info, or download the PDF or other documents you are viewing into its own collection. Unlike dealing with annoying file names or other ID numbers on PDFs, Onfolio lets you add your own title and Comment/Note for each item you collect. Then, search your collection, refresh your memory and browse back to what you need. It also saves the searches used to arrive at your destination page, you publish the collection on a website or as an RSS feed, etc. I can go on and on, but just try it, it’s truly worthy replacement for Favorites.

Where does Onfolio fit in? It fits into the research process that most of us, especially students, do on the Internet. It’s mo is that you spend time researching stuff, collecting info and then refer to Onfolio for retrieval when compiling your work. So, plan, research, collect, then write. This is different from other methods of research: Start writing, make brief research escapes to confirm, collect or identify info, then go back to note taking. This process follows a more random, unplanned research process. Which is where Microsoft’s OneNote would come in. [Speaking of OneNote, I’ll post my ideas on this problem. Hint: tables anyone?]

The problem with this process is that OneNote doesn’t have a browser and doesn’t collect the research I do there, so what’s the use in this method. There’s no integration between the two methods, and yet there are powerful tools for each component. Some tools need refinement, but their integration is not on level that would make it truly seamless. Onfolio could attach itself to all Microsoft Office products for easy perusal. Then it could also collect the links between it’s Collections and the documents where you are using these links, creating a sort of mini-Google on your desktop. And that’s just the beginning…

Our 2004 Wharton Technology Conference was a great success. Learn more about it here: WTC. As a Panel Manager for the Open Source Panel I invited a great group of people moderated by Kevin Bedell from LinuxWorld. It was an excellent panel where we had a very good intense discussion on the value in open source software and how companies try to commercialize o-s products. Eric Raymond had plenty to say of course and had a heated discussion with Jason Matusow, manager of Microsoft’s Shared Source Initiative. Without belaboring the debates, here are some links with good news coverage of the conference:

Coverage from CNet
http://news.com.com/2030-7343-5171928.html

Coverage from Knowledge@Wharton
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/index.cfm?fa=whatshot

CNET’s recorded interview with Bruce Harreld, including a brief conference plug at the beginning: (?Utility computing: Overhyped??)

http://news.com.com/1380-7352-5161198.html?tag=aud_pro

Enjoy!

Just to clarify a few things. I was accepted to Wharton recently and will be moving to Philadelphia with my family for the next 2 years. This has been the end of my search for b-schools which started a few years back, and culminated this spring with a slew of acceptances. Congratulations, you say? Well, Thank you. I am looking forward to a hiatus from my days as a quant analyst and into a more challenging and rewarding career. While I have a number of options that I’m considering pursuing, I haven’t finalized anything. Tech seems to be the perennial interest so I may end up on the west coast at some point.